Track Record: How Accurate Are the Predictions?

Every prediction is graded after its match. The results are in the app for you to check, not a headline number on a website.

Any app can say its predictions are accurate. We'd rather show the record. The Track record tab in Guru Vision grades every pre-match prediction once its match has finished and shows how often the model was right, across every market it predicts. Matches are graded once a day, the morning after they're played, so the record grows every day.

That's also why you won't find an accuracy percentage on this page. A number written into a website goes stale the day after it's published. The one in the app is recalculated every day from the model's actual calls.

Pick the Period

Look at a single day, the last 7, 30, or 90 days, or all time. A single day shows how a matchday went; longer periods smooth out the luck of a few results and show how the model really performs.

What the Track Record Shows

  • Overall: how many matches were graded, how many picks were right and wrong, and the share of picks that came in.
  • Sure Picks: predictions the model gave at least a set probability, and how many of them won. It answers the obvious question: when the model is very confident, how often is it right?
  • Strongest Picks: the model's most confident calls next to what actually happened, one by one.
  • By Market: accuracy for each prediction type — match result, both teams to score, the goal lines, and the rest. A market's rate only appears once it has at least 30 graded matches, so a handful of lucky or unlucky results can't make a market look better or worse than it is.

How Often Each Chance Came True

Being "right" isn't the whole story for a probability. If the model says 70% across a hundred matches, the outcome should happen in about 70 of them — not 95, and not 50. Tap a market to see exactly that: the picks grouped by the chance the model gave, with a bar for how often each group actually happened and a tick for the chance the model gave. When the bar sits close to the tick, the model's probabilities can be taken at face value. This view is available for a day and for the 7, 30, and 90-day periods.

We explain why this matters more than a single hit rate in How We Measure Prediction Accuracy.

Value Picks

A value pick is an outcome the model rates as likely — at least 50% — and more likely than the bookmaker's price implies. We recently tightened that definition, so value-pick results aren't part of the track record yet. They're graded every day all the same, and we'll add them once the new rule has enough results behind it to judge fairly.

Today's Results

For a quicker read on the current day, the Today tab of Guru Vision has a Today's Results section: today's finished matches above a confidence level you choose, with the model's pre-match call next to the final score.